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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
5:07pm CST · Rogers Centre
Boston is the class of this matchup: Sonny Gray (2.78 ERA, a 3.58 FIP) is miles ahead of Jameson Taillon, a homer machine at a 5.96 ERA and an alarming 6.74 FIP (2.93 home runs per nine), and the Red Sox are the hotter team (8-2, plus-84) with the best bullpen on the board (2.92). The caveat: Boston is on the road and its bats are only ordinary against right-handers (.704 OPS), and Gray's 3.58 FIP says he is very good rather than truly elite.
A huge starter and bullpen edge for the hotter team; Gray's 3.58 FIP is far ahead of Taillon's 6.74.
*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
Read more →Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
8:10pm CST · Dodger Stadium
Los Angeles carries the best arm on the board: Tarik Skubal pairs a 2.81 ERA with a 2.75 FIP in agreement, a 0.92 WHIP and a 10.69 strikeouts per nine, a clear tier above Noah Cameron (4.37 ERA, a tidier 3.79 FIP), with the Dodgers at plus-138 against a minus-110 Royals club. The caveat: the price on Los Angeles is very steep and the Dodgers are ice cold at 2-8, so the run line and the low total are better value than laying the flat moneyline.
Better value than the -316 moneyline behind the best arm on the board against a minus-110 club.
*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
Read more →New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
5:15pm CST · Truist Park
Atlanta is much the better team (plus-120, 8-2 at home) against a Mets club that is minus-43, but the arms cut the other way: Christian Scott (3.15 ERA, a sharp 3.43 FIP, 11.14 strikeouts per nine) is a level above Bryce Elder (3.69 ERA, a plainer 4.50 FIP). The caveat: the Braves' bullpen (3.46) is deeper than New York's (3.74), so the situation favors Atlanta even if the starting pitching does not.
The far better team, home and hot, with the deeper bullpen behind Elder.
*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
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