TB @ DAL
Thu Oct 8 · 18:15 CDMX · AT&T StadiumDallas is projected to win by about 8 or 9, which puts the Cowboys at a little over 3 offensive touchdowns and the Buccaneers under 2. Dallas has scored a touchdown on 81% of its red zone trips; Tampa Bay starts undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for the second time and is without safety Antoine Winfield Jr., corner Benjamin Morrison and linebacker SirVocea Dennis. A Dallas lead means Dallas runs late, which is when goal line carries pile up. The caveat: Tampa Bay has allowed only 1 rushing touchdown all season.
- Red zone usage. Javonte Williams has 18 of Dallas' 26 red zone carries and 9 carries inside the 5. CeeDee Lamb (5) and Jake Ferguson (4) lead the red zone targets.
- Defense vs position. Tampa Bay has allowed 3 touchdowns to tight ends, 3 to receivers and 1 to a running back. Dallas ranks last in the league by EPA and has let running backs score 5 times.
- Scoring streaks. Williams has scored in 3 of 4 games (3 TDs last week). Lamb has scored in 3 of 4. No Buccaneer has scored in more than one game.
- Game script. Dallas leads and runs late; Tampa Bay trails and throws. Every Cowboys game has gone over the total.
- 1.Javonte Williams DAL RB61%
The goal line back: 9 carries inside the 5 and touchdowns in 3 of 4 games.
- 2.CeeDee Lamb DAL WR47%
Red zone target leader; Tampa Bay gives up its touchdowns through the air and is missing two starters in the secondary.
- 3.Bucky Irving TB RB45%
Tampa Bay's volume back against a defense that has let backs score 5 times. A usage call, not a trend (1 TD so far).
- 4.Jake Ferguson DAL TE36%
3 TDs on 4 red zone targets, against a defense that has allowed 3 to tight ends.
Also in the mix: George Pickens (DAL WR, 26%), Kenneth Gainwell (TB RB, 24%), Emeka Egbuka (TB WR, 23%).
What would change this: Whether Dallas left guard Tyler Smith (questionable, just activated) plays, and whether Tampa Bay keeps using Sean Tucker at the goal line.