Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
A coin-flip between two struggling clubs: Trevor Rogers (4.20 ERA, a much better 3.55 FIP) has the edge on the mound over Dean Kremer (5.93 ERA, a 5.95 FIP on 41 innings since a trade), while Baltimore (minus-33) and Minnesota (minus-35) are near mirror images. The caveat: Minnesota is home, and the Twins' 4.79 bullpen is the weaker of the two (Baltimore 4.08), so the total has some appeal alongside a genuine pick-em on the side.
📊 The numbers
Park & weather: Target Field, a roughly neutral park, open-air with no roof, mild summer evening game.
| Stat | Baltimore Orioles | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Trevor Rogers (LHP) | Dean Kremer (RHP) |
| SP ERA | 4.2 | 5.93 |
| SP WHIP | 1.24 | 1.32 |
| SP K/9 | 7.63 | 8.78 |
| SP FIP | 3.55 | 5.95 |
| Bullpen ERA (season) | 4.08 | 4.79 |
| Form (last 10) | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Run differential | -33 | -35 |
Our read: A coin-flip between two struggling clubs: Trevor Rogers (4.20 ERA, a much better 3.55 FIP) has the edge on the mound over Dean Kremer (5.93 ERA, a 5.95 FIP on 41 innings since a trade), while Baltimore (minus-33) and Minnesota (minus-35) are near mirror images. The caveat: Minnesota is home, and the Twins' 4.79 bullpen is the weaker of the two (Baltimore 4.08), so the total has some appeal alongside a genuine pick-em on the side.
Top 3 picks
- 1Orioles ML-116*Med
The sharper starter by FIP and the better bullpen in a near pick-em.
- 2Over 8.5-105*Low
Kremer's 5.95 FIP and the Twins' 4.79 bullpen point up.
- 3Orioles -1.5+142*Low
Plus money if the pitching edge becomes a multi-run win.
*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.