Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Boston is the class of this matchup: Sonny Gray (2.78 ERA, a 3.58 FIP) is miles ahead of Jameson Taillon, a homer machine at a 5.96 ERA and an alarming 6.74 FIP (2.93 home runs per nine), and the Red Sox are the hotter team (8-2, plus-84) with the best bullpen on the board (2.92). The caveat: Boston is on the road and its bats are only ordinary against right-handers (.704 OPS), and Gray's 3.58 FIP says he is very good rather than truly elite.
📊 The numbers
Park & weather: Rogers Centre, a hitter-friendly park with artificial turf, retractable roof likely closed and climate controlled.
| Stat | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Sonny Gray (RHP) | Jameson Taillon (RHP) |
| SP ERA | 2.78 | 5.96 |
| SP WHIP | 1.15 | 1.39 |
| SP K/9 | 7.97 | 8.1 |
| SP FIP | 3.58 | 6.74 |
| Bullpen ERA (season) | 2.92 | 3.78 |
| Form (last 10) | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Run differential | +84 | -59 |
| Offense vs starter's hand (OPS) | .704 vs RHP | .700 vs RHP |
Our read: Boston is the class of this matchup: Sonny Gray (2.78 ERA, a 3.58 FIP) is miles ahead of Jameson Taillon, a homer machine at a 5.96 ERA and an alarming 6.74 FIP (2.93 home runs per nine), and the Red Sox are the hotter team (8-2, plus-84) with the best bullpen on the board (2.92). The caveat: Boston is on the road and its bats are only ordinary against right-handers (.704 OPS), and Gray's 3.58 FIP says he is very good rather than truly elite.
Top 3 picks
- 1Red Sox ML-170*HighBet of the Day 🔥
A huge starter and bullpen edge for the hotter team; Gray's 3.58 FIP is far ahead of Taillon's 6.74.
- 2Under 8.5Med
Gray limits damage even if Taillon does not; the books split the line (8 vs 8.5), so shop it.
- 3Red Sox -1.5+105*Low
Plus money if Boston pulls away from a homer-prone Taillon.
*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.