Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
A genuine pitcher's duel in pitcher-friendly Petco: Logan Henderson (2.70 ERA, a 3.15 FIP, a 0.90 WHIP, 11.16 strikeouts per nine) for the best team in baseball (plus-141) against Casey Mize, whose 3.40 ERA hides an even better 2.87 FIP. The caveat: Mize's FIP is actually sharper than Henderson's and San Diego is home, so this is a near pick-em, and the low total is the cleaner read than either side.
📊 The numbers
Park & weather: Petco Park, a pitcher-friendly park that suppresses offense, open-air with no roof, cool coastal evening game.
| Stat | Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Logan Henderson (RHP) | Casey Mize (RHP) |
| SP ERA | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| SP WHIP | 0.9 | 1.09 |
| SP K/9 | 11.16 | 8.6 |
| SP FIP | 3.15 | 2.87 |
| Bullpen ERA (season) | 3.49 | 3.65 |
| Form (last 10) | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Run differential | +141 | -10 |
| Offense vs starter's hand (OPS) | .752 vs RHP | .707 vs RHP |
Our read: A genuine pitcher's duel in pitcher-friendly Petco: Logan Henderson (2.70 ERA, a 3.15 FIP, a 0.90 WHIP, 11.16 strikeouts per nine) for the best team in baseball (plus-141) against Casey Mize, whose 3.40 ERA hides an even better 2.87 FIP. The caveat: Mize's FIP is actually sharper than Henderson's and San Diego is home, so this is a near pick-em, and the low total is the cleaner read than either side.
Top 3 picks
- 1Under 7.5-122*Med
Two of the stingiest arms on the slate (Henderson 0.90 WHIP, Mize 2.87 FIP) in a pitcher's park.
- 2Padres ML-105*Low
Home with the sharper arm by FIP at a pick-em price.
- 3Brewers ML-113*Low
The best team in baseball, even into a Petco pitcher's duel.
*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.