New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is much the better team (plus-120, 8-2 at home) against a Mets club that is minus-43, but the arms cut the other way: Christian Scott (3.15 ERA, a sharp 3.43 FIP, 11.14 strikeouts per nine) is a level above Bryce Elder (3.69 ERA, a plainer 4.50 FIP). The caveat: the Braves' bullpen (3.46) is deeper than New York's (3.74), so the situation favors Atlanta even if the starting pitching does not.
📊 The numbers
Park & weather: Truist Park, a roughly neutral park, open-air with no roof, warm summer evening game.
| Stat | New York Mets | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Christian Scott (RHP) | Bryce Elder (RHP) |
| SP ERA | 3.15 | 3.69 |
| SP WHIP | 1.26 | 1.2 |
| SP K/9 | 11.14 | 7.39 |
| SP FIP | 3.43 | 4.5 |
| Bullpen ERA (season) | 3.74 | 3.46 |
| Form (last 10) | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Run differential | -43 | +120 |
Our read: Atlanta is much the better team (plus-120, 8-2 at home) against a Mets club that is minus-43, but the arms cut the other way: Christian Scott (3.15 ERA, a sharp 3.43 FIP, 11.14 strikeouts per nine) is a level above Bryce Elder (3.69 ERA, a plainer 4.50 FIP). The caveat: the Braves' bullpen (3.46) is deeper than New York's (3.74), so the situation favors Atlanta even if the starting pitching does not.
Top 3 picks
- 1Braves ML-150*Med
The far better team, home and hot, with the deeper bullpen behind Elder.
- 2Under 8.5-113*Low
Scott misses bats at an 11.14 K/9 clip and both bullpens are solid.
- 3Mets +1.5-163*Low
A live road dog with the sharper starter as insurance.
*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.