Coleman Wong vs Arthur Gea
The other Los Cabos semifinal, a classic two-first-time-semifinalists coin flip. Coleman Wong (HKG, 21) has the most impressive resume left in the draw: reaching this semifinal guarantees his top-100 debut, a first for any man from Hong Kong, and he got here by upsetting top seed Jiri Lehecka and then beating Jenson Brooksby efficiently. Arthur Gea (FRA, 21) is into his first career ATP semifinal after a 6-7 6-4 6-0 upset of No. 3 seed Francisco Cerundolo in which he saved four set points. Both books make Gea the small favorite (about 57 to 59 percent), which is debatable: Wong's path was tougher and his legs are fresher, while Gea has now played three straight three-setters.
Top 3 picks
- 1Wong to win+110*Med
The value play: plus money (Caliente +110) on the player with the stronger wins this week (top seed Lehecka plus a former top-40 American) and the fresher legs, against a Gea who has spent far more time on court over three straight three-setters. Both books price Gea as the favorite, which is debatable given the paths.
- 2Over 22.5 total games-130*Med
Two first-time semifinalists who both hold serve reasonably well, in what projects as a tight, momentum-swinging match. A three-set battle or a pair of close sets clears this comfortably. Playdoit -130, the only book showing a games total.
- 3Wong +1.5 games-125*Low
The lower-risk way to back the Wong thesis: it cashes if Wong wins outright or loses by a single game, giving cover if his upset bid falls just short in a tight finish. Playdoit -125.
*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.