Every game on today's slate analyzed. Pitcher matchup quality, percentile metrics (ERA, xERA, K/9), park and handedness splits, bullpen fatigue. The bets where the market got the price wrong.
Two LHPs (Corbin vs McClanahan) in pitcher-friendly Tropicana. McClanahan's last two = shutout. Toronto vs LHP: middle-of-pack OPS.
Sproat (6.75 ERA, 23rd-pctile xERA, 4+ ER in 3 of 6 starts) is the worst arm on the slate. Pallante coming off 6 IP / 1 ER. Price miss.
Tier mismatch. Glasnow 93rd-pctile xERA vs McCullers 42nd-pctile. ML is −220 — runline gives a much better number with a clean cover path.
Ureña has 16.5% BB rate — 4th percentile, worst command on slate. Schultz (LHP, 2.53 ERA) is the cleaner arm. Plus money on the better outing profile.
Holmes vs Woo. T-Mobile suppresses RHB power. Both teams bottom-third in BB% vs RHP. Game scripts to a 4-3 type result.
Gray averages 7.4 K/start vs his career swing-and-miss profile. Tigers K-rate vs RHP is bottom-third in MLB.
Wheeler (2.45 ERA) at home vs sub-.500 A's lineup. Phillies bullpen is rested. Plus money on the runline cover.
Ober (3.55 ERA) vs Mikolas (8.23 ERA, just brutal). Twins lineup hits LHP&RHP. Lay the juice; this should be 4+ runs.
Skenes putaway rate is 92nd pctile. Pirates win it on him; AZ K-rate vs RHP is league-average. Easy money on K total.
The pitcher props with the cleanest model edge today. Sorted by edge size.
| Pitcher | Matchup | Prop | Line | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | PIT @ ARI | Strikeouts | Over 8.5 (−115) | 9.7 | +12.4% |
| Tyler Glasnow | LAD @ HOU | Strikeouts | Over 7.5 (−115) | 8.6 | +10.1% |
| Shane McClanahan | TOR @ TB | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 (−115) | 7.5 | +8.7% |
| Sonny Gray | BOS @ DET | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 (−115) | 7.4 | +8.2% |
| Bailey Ober | MIN @ WSH | Outs recorded | Over 17.5 (−110) | 18.8 | +6.1% |
| Andre Pallante | MIL @ STL | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 (−110) | 5.1 | +5.4% |