17 games rated across La Liga, Premier League, Liga MX, MLB, and NBA. Sorted by confidence. Click any pick for the full breakdown.
Significant market mispricing. Villarreal +200 (33.3% implied) vs model 43.2%. Home edge overrated; class underrated.
Sproat (6.75 ERA, 23rd-pctile xERA) vs Pallante mismatch. Plus-money on the better arm — clear price miss by the market.
Arsenal top of league, 5-pt cushion. Score model: 1–3 Arsenal. Better number than the −172 ML.
BTTS hit in 6 of last 7 H2H. ML is a coinflip with no edge. Pattern angle is the cleanest play.
Glasnow (93rd-pctile xERA) vs McCullers (42nd). Big tier mismatch. ML is −220, runline gives a better number.
Title decider at Montjuïc. Both Clásicos this season went over 3.5 + BTTS. Modern Clásico is a goalfest.
Ureña has 16.5% BB rate (4th pctile). Schultz (LHP, 2.53 ERA) is the cleaner arm. Plus money on the better team.
Lakers down 0–3, on the brink. OKC has covered 8 of 11 vs sub-.500 teams as a fave of 9+. Closeout games tilt favorite.
Two LHPs (Corbin vs McClanahan) in pitcher-friendly Tropicana. McClanahan back-to-back shutouts. Toronto bats below avg vs LHP.