Every pick we publish lands here within 24 hours of the game ending. Win, loss, push, void — recorded. We never delete a losing pick. We never edit a published one. No spin. No estafa. Public ledger.
Disclosure: a 53–55% win rate at -110 odds is a strong long-term bettor result. We will never claim 80%+ accuracy. We've had 4 losing months in 14 — that's normal variance. The metric we care about is units won over the long run.
Liga MX, Premier League, La Liga, Champions League. Strongest in mid-table La Liga matchups (62% win rate on +EV plays in that segment).
Best-performing sport. Pitcher-prop edge (Ks, outs recorded) is +18% ROI. Run-line bets on plus-money favorites is the second-strongest segment.
Mostly Super Bowl + Sunday slate primetime games. Smaller volume — we're more selective in NFL because the lines are sharper.
Honest moment: NBA is our weakest sport. Mostly playoff games. We've been slightly under variance. Working on the model.
| Date | Sport | Matchup | Pick | Odds | Conf | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10 | ⚽ La Liga | Mallorca vs Villarreal | Villarreal ML | +200 | High | PENDING | — |
| May 10 | ⚾ MLB | MIL @ STL | Cardinals ML | +105 | High | PENDING | — |
| May 10 | ⚽ EPL | WHU vs ARS | Arsenal -1 AH | -110 | High | PENDING | — |
| May 9 | ⚽ La Liga | Real Sociedad vs Real Betis | BTTS - Yes | -130 | Med | WIN | +0.77u |
| May 9 | ⚾ MLB | NYY @ BOS | Yankees ML | -120 | High | WIN | +0.83u |
| May 9 | ⚾ MLB | LAD @ ATL | Over 8.5 | -115 | Med | LOSS | −1.00u |
| May 9 | ⚽ Bundesliga | Bayern vs Dortmund | Bayern -1 AH | -105 | High | WIN | +0.95u |
| May 8 | ⚽ UCL Final | Inter vs PSG | Under 2.5 | +105 | Med | LOSS | −1.00u |
| May 8 | ⚾ MLB | HOU @ SEA | Astros -1.5 RL | +135 | Med | WIN | +1.35u |
| May 8 | ⚾ MLB | Glasnow Over 7.5 K | Over 7.5 K | -115 | High | WIN | +0.87u |
| May 8 | ⚽ EPL | Liverpool vs Chelsea | Both Teams to Score - Yes | -150 | Med | PUSH | 0u |
| May 7 | ⚾ MLB | SD @ COL | Over 10.5 | -110 | High | WIN | +0.91u |
| May 7 | ⚽ Liga MX | América vs Toluca | América ML | +135 | Med | LOSS | −1.00u |
| May 7 | ⚾ MLB | NYM @ COL | Peralta Over 5.5 K | -105 | Med | WIN | +0.95u |
| May 6 | ⚾ MLB | MIL @ STL | Cardinals ML | +105 | High | WIN | +1.05u |
| May 6 | ⚾ MLB | LAD @ HOU | Dodgers RL -1.5 | -128 | High | WIN | +0.78u |
| May 6 | ⚾ MLB | TOR @ TB | Under 7.5 | -110 | Med | WIN | +0.91u |
All units assume flat-bet sizing of 1 unit per pick (high confidence) or 0.5 units (medium confidence). Results are calculated using the actual odds at time of publication, not best-available. We track to closing line value (CLV) internally — that report is in the works.
If you find an error in any logged pick, email errors@slate.bet with the date and we'll correct it within 24 hours.